in Behavioral Economics

What You See Is All There Is

The world doesn’t give us decisions to be made made like answering a multiple choice problem, though sometimes we may believe that’s the case. Nobel Prize Winner in Economics Daniel Kahneman and his collaborator, Amos Tversky, tackled the blind side of decision-making in their pioneering work on prospect theory. Their 1979 paper, Prospect theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk, illustrated humanity’s collective divergence from neoclassical economic decision-making. The two conducted a series of psychological tests that unpacked the heuristics and biases that influence how we perceive the costs and benefits of a given decision, and how our judgments are often incongruent with various decisions’ objective values.

I was talking with a friend recently about some choices he’ll soon have to make in his career. We spent a good deal of time on the phone and went through several scenarios and permutations thereof on how things might play out. When I got off the phone with him I couldn’t shake the feeling that we had missed something. Though we swarmed the issue he was dealing with aggressive and penetrating intellectual consideration, I had this sense that we had missed something important.

A few hours later it hit me. Kahneman describes in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, the notion of “What You See Is All There Is.” We tend to make decisions independent of outside considerations unless we go through the taxing mental exercise of developing counterfactuals. We simply fail to account for the incredible complexity of our world when making decisions and tend to rely on a small and not necessarily representative sample of observations when formulating conclusions or courses of action. Our brain can deal with the known knowns, but has a difficult time conceptualizing known unknowns, phenomena that is relevant to the problem at hand but for which our mental reserves have no information on. And it goes without saying we tend to immediately discount the unknown unknowns, the proverbial “black swans” of our world that Nassim Taleb has brought into so many contemporary intellectual conversations.

I ended up sending my friend a well thought out counterfactual argument to basically everything I had described during our phone call. I had been relying too much on intuitive judgment at the expense of exploring outside possibilities, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. The final course of action turned an otherwise myopic and short-sighted plan of action into one that was much broader and more thought through. We turned a yes/no question into a multiple-choice question, and in the process gained a far better sense of what was at stake.

Just remember, zoom out when something feels off and remember that your brain believes that what you see is all there is, especially since the truth is anything but.

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  14. Interesting post and I agree with you. There’s another apcrpaoh to seeing what’s next that helps sort the wheat from the chaff of weak signals. It relates to hypotheses but not totally. When you have a collection of weak signals don’t treat them all the same. Categorise them. Are they about the target’s capabilities? Put these in box 1. Are they are their strategy? Box 2. Goals. Box 3. Assumptions. Box 4. Anything else box 5. You then look at each of boxes 1-4 and compare them to other information you have and see whether they fit in. You can also use Porter’s 4-corners apcrpaoh to analyse whether they agree or contradict each other. That can help sort out what to do with them. With box 5 try and work out why it is box 5. (It may be that you have information but no target to pin it to, for example so can’t do the above). For all the information and especially box 5 information, you should look at the information source and try and understand why the information became available. Do this and you often gain an idea on its veracity. The problem then becomes not the analysis of information but the quantity. Too much information and you start to drown and can’t categorise it it’s not a computer job, but a human job. In this case one apcrpaoh is to do the above with a random sample of information depending on your confidence needs and the quantity. Of course none of these solves the thanksgiving turkey problem totally. In this case, you have lots of consistent information coming in saying humans provide food . In fact your analysis is at fault not the information. If you look at the source of the information and try and understand it, you may (emphasis on may) come up with the true. For example:Information: Humans provide food.Source: observation that humans give food every day from multiple reliable sources.Now question the reason / objectives behind this observation. Why was this observation available? You come up with the hypothesis apcrpaoh you suggest so you have to test each set of consistent observation against the hypotheses and see which matches. Then choose your own strategy based on an assessment of risk.So potential hypotheses: 1 humans like me and so feed me (i.e. humans are nice) 2 humans feed me for some other reason (i.e. humans are not nice). Until other information comes in to justify hypothesis 1, hypothesis 2 is the safer one to adopt as even if hypothesis 1 is true, you won’t get hurt by adopting a strategy predicated on hypothese 2. (You may not eat so much and be called skinny by all the other turkeys near you. However you are less likely to be killed).